Earlier in the day, the DCCC released the details of a GQR internal poll showing Democrat Larry Kissell drubbing Robin Hayes by a 54-43 margin in their congressional rematch. To counter that notion, Hayes has released his own internal poll. Let’s take a look.
Public Opinion Strategies for Robin Hayes (9/23&25, likely voters, 8/4-5 in parens):
Larry Kissell (D): 43 (40)
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 46 (50)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here’s one glaring omission from Hayes’ poll: in August, he released numbers saying that McCain was leading Obama by a 47-42 margin in the 8th District. And now? It looks like those numbers were omitted from his press release — quite possibly because Obama has pulled ahead in his own poll.
We’ve been skeptical of Kissell’s chops for a long time, but this poll — combined with the general Democratic surge in North Carolina — is enough for us to bump our rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.
It sounds like both these guys are just pulling numbers out of their ass. However, Kissell’s numbers do merit more accuracy because of the take over of NC based Wachovia, which would explain the huge spike in support for Kissell, since I’m assuming most people would blame the incumbent for that little problem.
I continue to be puzzled by the lack of interest in this district on the part of SSP members. In ’06 Kissell came within 400 of defeating Hayes. He immediately began to run again in very much of the same grass-roots fashion as his ’06 race against one of the richest members of the House.
James has repeatedly expressed his doubts about this race, and reiterates this position, “We’ve been skeptical of Kissell’s chops for a long time….” And there are nearly no comments about the race whenever it’s mentioned.
Is it because Kissell is likely to be a blue-dog Dem? Is it because he’s a lousy fund raiser (in a poor CD)? Is it because the district is in NC? I’m mystified.
This is part of an effort to reclaim parts of the South for Dems. Having been born in TN and growing up largely in SC, I see little change there, but in NC it IS happening. Last cycle Heath Schuer won in NC 11. This cycle Kay Hagan is likely to replace Liddy Dole. Next time perhaps we can take on Virginia Fox. So why no interest? No, the race isn’t so splashy as NY 13. On the other hand it should spark some interest as a classic David versus Goliath contest between an incredibly rich and reflexive Bush supporter and a pennyless Dem school teacher.
Again I just don’t get it. Last time I looked, each House member still gets only one vote. In an area of the country where Dems chronically get croaked, the possible pick up of a second seat in two election cycles merits more than a ho-hum.